Rising Heat Threatens India’s Wheat

Context

India is the second-largest producer of wheat in the world, with an annual production of over 100 million metric tons. However, the country’s wheat production is under threat due to rising temperatures caused by climate change. Scientists have estimated that for every 1°C increase in temperature, wheat production in India could reduce by 4-5 million metric tons.

Factors Affecting Wheat Production

Several factors contribute to the vulnerability of wheat production to climate change in India:

• Temperature Increase: Wheat crops are heat sensitive because high temperatures tend to reduce the process of photosynthesis, growth, development and grain yield. Thus, yield reduction by the effect of accelerated senescence becomes marked at temperatures above 34°C. For wheat, an ideal temperature of growth is 17-23 degrees centigrade throughout the growth period and maximum temperature of 37 degrees centigrade is preferable.
• Heat Stress: Heat stress is identified as the cardinal climate factor influencing yield of wheat in the IGP region of India. Large area is under late- and very late-sown conditions presume yield loss due to heat stress, which became drastic in central and eastern India.
• Rainfall Patterns: India has more than 85 % of its wheat land irrigated and yet changes in rainfall can affect its production. Some changes in the climate such as rise in temperatures, increase in intensity and frequency of weather units could adversely affect the production of wheat in a given area.

Impacts on Wheat Production

Studies have projected a decline in wheat production in India due to climate change:

• Yield Reductions: These changes would seriously reduce wheat yields, for instance regular temperature rise of 2°C in the season would imply yield loss of up to 20% in some areas of the IGP. In march 2004 high temperatures affected the IGP affecting the crop maturity that lowered the rate of wheat production to 4 million metric tons.
• Spatial and Temporal Magnitudes: Therefore, there is a need to establish the spatial and temporal sizes of the impacts of climate change on wheat production at regional level. Probably the warmer areas including the central and south-central regions of India could be most affected.
• Projected Declines: In light of these, this study established that climate change will cause grain yield reduction in India to vary between 6 and 23% in 2050 and 15 to 25 % in 2080 for wheat crops. Nevertheless, for the enhanced CO2 concentration in future climate CO2 fertilization effect is expected to reduce the yield of wheat to the level lower than it is at present.

Adaptation Strategies

Several low-cost technologies can help reduce the negative impacts of climate change on wheat production:

• Improved Varieties: Breeding high heat tolerance and other climate change stress-tolerant improved drought-tolerant elite wheat varieties can also help reduce yield decline.
• Altered Agronomy: This can also be addressed by changing the use of fertilizer and or changing the time of planting crops in relation to climate change.
• Efficient Input Use: Educating farmers on techniques that can help minimize the effects of climate change such as using inputs like water and fertilisers appropriately will go a long way in ensuring sufficient yields of the grain.

Recent Developments

• Earlier in 2022, Pakistan also witnessed a series of heat waves in April that negatively impacted its early crops including wheat. But, the IMD has clarified that while the maximum temperatures have gone up in 2023, the wheat crop for which the harvesting has already begun would not be affected.
• The IMD has claimed that there is no warning of a heat wave for Punjab, Haryana, UP, and other states that are major producers of wheat, except for MP. There would be no effect in these states even if the temperatures go to 35°C above or higher during the months of May to July because 90% of the wheat has already been harvested in these states.

Conclusion

Currently one of the major challenges affecting the production of wheat in India is global warming whose effects include higher temperatures. Climate change has an impact on wheat production since aspects like temperature rise, heat stress, and shift in rainfall become a critical issue. Research has estimated possible crop losses varying from 6% to 25% of wheat productivity by 2080. In order to overcome these negative effects on wheat production, climate change may be addressed through better varieties, changes in techniques of cultivation and effective utilisation of the inputs used. Nevertheless, further research and policy actions are required to secure the food supply in the context of climate change.

Source: DTE

UPSC Prelims Practice Question

Q. Which of the following statements about the impact of rising temperatures on India’s wheat production are correct?

1. For every 1°C increase in temperature, wheat production in India is estimated to reduce by 4-5 million metric tons.
2. The impact of heat stress is more pronounced in the central and south-central regions of India compared to the northern wheat-growing states.
3. Developing heat-resistant wheat varieties and improving agronomic practices can help adapt to the negative impacts of climate change.
4. The Indian government has set higher wheat procurement targets in recent years to offset the decline in production due to rising temperatures.

Select the correct answer using the codes given below:

a) 1 and 2 only

b) 2 and 3 only

c) 1, 2 and 3 only

d) 1, 2, 3 and 4

Ans – “c”

Download as PDF